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Optimists, liberals, torn over immigration: the detailed sociology of macronists

According to an analysis by the Jean-Jaures Foundation, La Republique en marche has acquired sympathizers since January 2017 but does not dominate the political landscape.

ERIC FEFERBERG / AFP

The movement created by Emmanuel Macron in April 2016 and which accompanied his conquest of the Elysee Palace remains a misidentified political object. It is all the interest of the study that Gilles Finchelstein, general director of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation, has just dedicated to the profile of the supporters of La République en marche (LRM).

This radioscopy is based on the analysis of the electoral panel of the Sciences Po Research Center (Cevipof) – conducted by Ipsos in partnership with Le Monde since December 2015. Based on the latest wave of this survey, conducted in June 2018 with 12,387 voters, a sample of 1,696 LRM supporters was circumscribed. These are citizens who say that the party they “feel closest to” is the “walkers”. They therefore constitute a larger nucleus than the adherents, but narrower than the voters.

These supporters, who were almost nonexistent in January 2017, currently represent 14% of the entire panel, against 14% for Republicans, 13% for the National Gathering, 9% for the Socialist Party, 7% for France insubordinate and 25% who do not feel close to any training. While the emergence of the presidential party is undeniable, it does not allow it to dominate the political landscape.

French optimists
First observation: the sympathizers of LRM are neither particularly young nor particularly urban. They are overrepresented (+6 points compared to the French average) among the over-64s and they are slightly fewer (-2 points) in the rural world than in the big cities (+2 points).

Second observation: they are the representatives of a France that is doing well. This is true of their socioprofessional category: senior executives are in number (16% against 11% on average), unlike employees and workers (17% against 27% on average). In the same way, they are more qualified .

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